first day back

Today was the first day I have traded for 10 days, and it felt a little weird to be back. I really struggled with consistency and ended up down about a pound for the day, which I am happy with, seeing how badly things seemed to go. I am hoping it was just a bit of rustiness and lack of concentration which affected me, and will aim to trade another couple of days during the new year period before getting back into it fully in january and building on the progress of the last few months.

Not much to report

I havent had much to say about my trading in the last few days, the markets have been fairly tough but I have come out of them ok even when I have struggled early on. I wont be able to do much trading from now on until after christmas, and there will also be days where there are no meetings/meetings are called off. I'm kind of worried about what effect this will have, but I guess I will just have to find out!

battling back

Another day where I started badly, with a big loss, £5.56 in the 3rd race today. I feel I am much better at handling these losses, buoyed by the knowledge that I can make the loss back, and more, in the rest of the day. I don't seem to chase as much, and they are having less and less mental effect on me. So it turned out today, where I ended up making a decent profit for the day, £4.37.

Its weird thinking back to where I was a year ago, I had been on courses, I had had 1 to 1 tutoring, I had spent hours, and lots of money, trading, and it seemed totally baffling to me how it was possible to make a profit. A loss like this one today would have spiralled out of control.
It took a bit of help from Andy Fuller, some advice I saw on the Bet Angel forum, and really going back to basics, that has helped me turn things around in the last 8 months, from where I had never had a winning month in a year and a half, to having 4 winning months out of the last 5. As someone pointed out in a comment on one of my posts, I still have a long way to go, but I know that I can make it.

Stupid stupid stupid

greed and indiscipline almost got me today. After the first race where I took a £2.90 loss without blinking an eye, I proceeded to go on a nice run of 16 races in profit ( well, 2 were scratched), to be looking at my best ever total for the day. In the next race, I was trading too close to the off, and had a small red, £0.64. This affected me more than it should, maybe I felt it was an insult to me to actually get it wrong for once, maybe I was just getting tired and losing concentration. The next 2 races I also traded after the official off time, and in the 4'oclock, it went against me just as the race went in play, the horse must have rocketed out of the stalls, as I was all of a sudden looking at a £12 red situation if I closed out, in a 5f race. This would have wiped out my days profits and i wasn't able to accept that, so I basically just sat and hoped. I got away with it this time, but it shows how I still have a long way to go in controlling my emotions. I am usually good at getting out at the official off time, and must make sure I keep control even late on in the card. There is no point trading after the off time because 1) the market is usually more volatile 2) there is no time for the market to come back , and 3) there is no time to put in another trade to make back your loss. I also should have taken the £12 loss, rather than the £74 loss I was looking at if the horse had gone on to win, surely its better to finish the day neither up nor down, rather than £62 down, which would basically wipe my whole month.

WTF?!!!??

The markets have been really swingy recently, I have had to adjust to ( or learn ) a new trading style to be able to deal with it. It means being much more cautious, choosing "safe" entry points, and cutting out as soon as it moves against you, or scratching if the move doesn't materialise in the first few seconds.
The 14:20 at hexam today was just ridiculous though. The favorite swung from 3.5 to 5 early on, then with about 5 minutes to go, came back in to close to 3!.





I had laid at around 5 ( lol) as it looked like the second fav was coming in, luckily I got out with a smallish red which I was able to get back.
I dont understand how to make money from these big swings, as unless you get on right at the start, there is no guarantee ( in fact it seems less and less likely the further it goes) that it will keep going. I wasnt confident enough to jump on the swing at any time, until it had started going out again, as the 2nd favorite was coming in fast. If I understood what makes these swings happen then I may find it easier to profit from them.

overall I was quite happy with the days profit though, the last few days have gone fairly well after a poor start to the month

A good day

Today made my best ever total, £11.83. Obviously it is possible to make more money when you have increased your stakes, but I am feeling good about it anyway. The rest of the month has been up and down, so need to keep my head together. I could already feel the reluctance to put in trades for fear of destroying my days profit. A good day can also affect the next few days trading through greed and overconfidence, so tomorrow I am going to have to push all the thoughts and emotions away, and make sure I am in the zone.

fear

Felt a bit of a struggle again today, although I scraped a small profit. The increase in stakes has definitely made a difference to my trading, and I need to work hard to get over that. At £20, the losses can start to make an impact, losing pounds instead of pennies, and I am being affected by the fear and uncertainty.
It took nearly 2 months to get used to trading with £10, at this rate I will be using meaningful stakes by christmas 2010!

Not a good start

I decided to start December by raising my stakes to £20. I felt the last 2 weeks of November went well, and wanted to challenge myself a little. I knew that raising the stakes was going to test my new-found discipline, confidence and temperament, I didn't expect to be tested so soon!
The first few races started off ok, but then things started to go a bit wonky, the markets seemed, crazy, with big moves all over the place. I always seemed to be on the wrong side and came out with some fairly big losses. I felt I took these losses well, but my discipline slipped a bit, with some trades put in after the off time, which went in play a couple of times( not a conscious choice). A couple of the losses were due to me not paying attention to the signals the market was giving me, and waiting in hope for the market to turn. I ended up with an £8.15 loss on the day, which isnt too bad, I have recovered from comparable losses before. I think the higher stakes will bring into focus aspects of my trading that I need to work on, and will hopefully accelerate the learning process a bit.

November summary

Overall, November has been my best ever month:-

PnL : £28.28
Strike Rate : 62.33% ( races not trades)

Even though its been my best month, both values are quite low. Using £10 stakes I would be looking for £60-£90 a month, and my strike rate seems quite low. I have also traded a low number of races, only 377 out of the 600 or more races. I know that I am avoiding a lot of races with odds on favorites or very volatile markets with odds in the 2.00 to 3.00 range, I will need to work on making these markets profitable if I want my PnL to grow.

In general though, I have a lot to be pleased about. I found a good spreadsheet on this site , made by MG from the Trading Mind Games blog, it gives a lot of good information on how your trading is progressing. Firstly, my PnL for the month.


After the disasters around the 7th-8th Nov, my PnL has been rising pretty steadily, and I have been fairly consistent. Even when I have had a horrible strike rate, I have still managed to keep it together pretty well.

Some graphs :-


My average loss has been steadily dropping throughout the month, and this is a very good sign. My average win has gone up very slightly. I am worried about my strike rate, which has gone down through the month( although it is still round about the value for other months). I don't want to become ever more cautious and fearful in an attempt to increase my strike rate, so I need to strike a balance between going in to the market when I perceive an opportunity, and making sure that the opportunity is a good one. I am making a profit, and this is something to be proud of at this stage.

schwing!

The last 2 days I have been consciously looking for only swing trades, and it has been going a lot better. It means putting a lot less trades in, and being a bit more patient, which has been difficult, as I feel I should be hitting the markets hard. Also I am worried that I am changing my trading style in reaction to past days trading, becoming a bit more tentative and conservative than I should be. I guess I should be adjusting my trading style to each market, treating each one as unique, but it's hard to work out what a market is doing until you have watched it for a while, and by then its too late, its in-play!
Today I had a 100% strike rate in races, so am really pleased with that. I think have been overly critical and pessimistic of my trading in the last week, as, looking at my records, it looks like I'm doing fine for the stage I am at. I will probably take a day off tomorrow, maybe 2, and post a monthly results post.

tough day again

Another difficult day, this time I didn't get away so easily, ending up with a £2.48 loss for the day. I think part of my problem was trying to scalp in markets that just didn't suit it. Once I had adjusted and was looking for swings, things seemed to go a bit better( although without being great).With my strike rate being so low, I also lost a bit of self-discipline, and deliberately let a couple of races go in-play, which is not a good sign. I am still obviously not able to take a sustained run of losses and accept them.
Betfair going down for a few races didn't help either, meaning less races where I had a chance to pull it back, luckily I was out before the start of the race which seemed to cause all the problems.

tough

Found it hard going today, nothing I did seemed to come off.
Feeling a bit discouraged but still ended day with small green.

Frustration

Today I started off really well, first race made £1.55, another race made £1.67. I was keeping my losses low and trading calmly, trying not to focus on how much I was making. Then came the 14:50 and 15:00 races. I'm really not sure what happened, but I managed to lose a total of £4.20 on these races, blowing my profits for the day so far. There was an unexpected swing in both races, I seem to remember, but there has been in other races too and I usually manage to lose less than £1 on these most times.

The worrying thing is, this is now 3 days in a row that this has happened, where I have been on for a good total for the day and then 1 or 2 races just kill my profits. I can put some of it down to the fact that sunday, monday and tuesday are fairly difficult to trade, but I don't think this is the whole story. It seems to be the later races, getting to the end of the card, that get me. Am I getting tired, losing concentration and focus? Am I letting my PnL affect my trading by become more reckless and (over)confident when I have a good total for the day? Do I think I know what the market is doing and not need to pay attention to the information that is being given me?
I am certainly getting angry when these losses happen, and that can be a sign that I am emotionally involved in the market, and have expectations of what is going to happen.
As I have mentioned before, I think a certain amount of self-sabotage is involved too. That is something that by its very nature is going to be hidden deep in the subconscious and not something I can get rid of easily. I dont fancy looking in the mirror every morning and chanting
"I welcome wealth and success as my right" or whatever crap the self-help books teach you to say.
I think a combination of all these factors is the cause, and is an indication that I am not as far along the path to success as I think. I was going to raise my stakes, but may wait a bit now.

I am happy that over the 3 days, I have still made £4.62 , and a few months ago I would have been deep in the red in the same situation.I know I am making progress and need to stay calm and work on these mental aspects.

Feeling good

It's funny how when things are going badly, I can have a lot to say, lots to think about, and lots to beat myself over the head with, but when things are going well I don't know what to say. I am really pleased with how the last 2 weeks have gone, and I think the blog has a lot to do with it. It helps to think about what is going wrong, what you have learned about trading, and to put down your thoughts, it kind of brings them forward in your head, makes them concrete, and gives you focus on things to work on.
Another good today, making £3.52 from £10 stakes. This is without trading all the races. I find it quite difficult to have a strategy for races with favorites with odds less than 3, and also races where 2 horses are under 3, or around the same mark. If I can make more progress in these races then my PnL can only improve. I have almost eradicated going in-running, as I am now out when Bart says "I'm outta here", or else closing my trade soon after.

Smooth running

Today saw much more stable markets than the last 2 days for me. Everything seemed to go really smoothly, there were no panic moments, and I was on for a 100% strike rate in races until the last race, where I messed up a bit.
After the last 10 days where I have had 8 winning days, and the 2 losing days lost me a total of £0.29, I am seriously considering raising my stakes a bit. At the moment I use £10 stakes across all price ranges, and although I don't set a daily target I consider anything over £3 a good day. I want this month to end with a green PnL, and raising the stakes may put unnecessary pressure on me, so I may wait till the end of the month and then raise my stakes to £20.

Tough couple of days

The last 2 days have been a bit of a struggle. The markets were quite volatile, sometimes huge swings that I wasn't confident enough to get on, because in these markets it can just as easily turn the other way in a flash. I find its better to offer a price at a good entry point if possible rather than gamble on the swing, if it's a missed opportunity then there will be more along later. I don't know if I am right to fear these swings. As Mark Douglas says, each moment in the market is unique, just because its gone against you before shouldn't stop you from entering if you perceive an opportunity. I feel, however, that unless you are in right at the start of the swing, then the upside is limited and the downside can be pretty big, so I tend to stay away.
These markets also make me quite jumpy, and I am ready to exit my position as soon as it looks like going against me. In general I think I am right to do so.
So with these conditions, I have been struggling to find good trades, and haven't had much consistency. The positive that I can take out of this is that I still managed to make money overall. Yesterday I ended up with a decent total, and today I was about break even. I know that a few months ago I would have been much more likely to have gone to pieces and lost a lot of money.

Downs and Ups

I was feeling quite confident after how the last few days went, my state of mind was positive, I was ready to accept losses when they came, and trying to trade without fear. This state of mind was sorely tested when race after race went badly, After the first losing race I thought " Ok, I can accept that, the market was hard for me to read", after the second losing race I was thinking "Wow, Im losing confidence in my reading of the markets", and by just over an hour in to the trading session, I was £4 down, my positive feelings were gone, and I was ready to quit before I really went to pieces and lost more. I couldn't believe how I seemed to get every race wrong, for large losses each time.
Anyway, I kept going, tried to stay positive and believe in my trading ability, and race by race clawed it all back. I got a nice trade in the 15:05, where I caught 2 swings on the 2nd favorite and greened up for nearly £2. In all, I got 8 winning races in a row from being at my lowest point, and ended the day up £1.89

The nature of the markets mean that there will be times where I hit a run of losing trades, even though my entry points may be ok. This is all part of accepting the losses and putting in trades when you see opportunities, even if you have lost the last 5 times. At the moment my edge is fairly small(if it even exists), so these losing runs will have a large impact on my PnL. As my trading improves and I identify better and better entry points, my edge will grow and hopefully lessen the effect

back in the black

I have been trading quite well in the last few days, and have clawed back all the losses from a few days ago. It would have been 4 green days in a row, if I hadn't been a bit too greedy in the last race, and put in a really stupid trade, which wiped out my whole days profit. I was greened up in that race too ( havent I been here before?).

I still feel that I am making some progress. I am beginning to actively accept that some trades may make a loss, am choosing a point where I will cut out, and putting the trade in without ( much) fear. This is made easier by the fact that I know that I can make the loss back easily in the next race, or even the same race a lot of the time. This is the sort of mindset that I think is needed to be successful. So maybe I am starting to conquer the fear. Greed, on the other hand, still has a big hold over me.

self fulfilling prophecy?

On Tuesday the 3rd november I wrote in my blog
"I feel that I have made a large leap to the next level over the last few days.................,I will see what happens in the next few days, many times I have thought this and been brought crashing back to earth."
Is it a coincidence that the next 3 days trading went really badly? probably not, but whether its due to the the negative thought of "its happened before, it will happen again", or to overconfidence from good results, or some other reason, I dont really know.

Anyway, I have pulled it back together a bit in the last couple of days, with 2 decent results. I have set a rule of not trading past the official off time, even if I am in the red for that race, and have managed to hold to that most of the time. not good enough, I have to do it every time.

self destruct engaged

In 1 race today, I lost almost a whole £10 stake. Sounds almost impossible to do unless you are really really bad at trading. I laid a horse, it started to come in, I laid it some more, it came in more, laid it again, came in more, finally gave up and closed for a near £5 loss. Then I laid another horse, it started to come in, laid it some more, it came in more, laid it again, came in more, laid it again, came in more, closed for a near £5 loss. I guess I still cant recognise the markets that are likely to come back, and the ones that probably arent. I stopped trading after that, as I felt pretty low, and would probably be likely to carry on trading badly to try and gain back some losses.

In the last 3 days I have gone from having a good start to the month, to wiping out all my profits and now looking at a long climb back to being even for the month, if I can even achieve that.
I feel really disheartened and low. How is it possible to not let this affect me, as I need to do to be able to trade properly.

It finally happened

The event I predicted finally happened today, I went in play one time too many, not consciously intending to, I had a couple of bets just outside the money which got taken right at the off. the horse must have shot out of the stalls like a rocket, because the odds dropped and kept on dropping. A momentary thought of " Let it run and see if it comes back" was quickly suppressed, and I was out for a big red, wiping out my winnings for the month so far. I was in the green for the race before this happened too.

Did I learn my lesson? Nope, the next race, the same thing happened!! this time I got out for a scratch but that's not the point.

So what is making me do this, time after time??

Greed. I want to win more. What I am making(taking stakes into account) is never enough.

Addiction. I am maybe addicted to seeing the little green numbers next to each runner. Its a flaw in my mental character. Its what made me play fruit machines, even when I knew what it meant for them to have a payout of 70%. Its what attracts me to play roulette, even though I know that its impossible to win in the long run.

Self Sabotage. Im not sure about this one, but maybe I dont want to succeed at some subconscious level? When I play tennis, and am winning, and have the winning line in my sights, I suddenly fall to pieces and lose. Same with most sports. Same with University. Maybe Im not sure if I really want lots of money( strange though that sounds). What do I get out of not succeeding as a trader? I dont know.

On a more positive note, the loss hasn't affected me as much as it usually would. A flash of anger at being so stupid, and I have been pretty calm since then. I knew it was coming, so it was easier to accept I guess. What can I do about it? The feeling of "needing" to place these trades near the off is like an urge to scratch an itch, I guess its like a loss of control, a relinquishing of responsibility, I can throw everything into the wind and see what comes back. Will I be blessed or will I be cursed? Will I win or will I lose?

Too good to be true

I had a mixed day today, I was going well and on for a good daily total, when 2 out of the last 3 races caught me out, losing over £5 in those 2 races. I knew that one of them was risky, but still had too many trades in place, and they got taken as the market went the wrong way, leaving me with a large red position. I ended up down about £1 for the day, its frustrating to be wiped out by 2 bad races, and I'm not sure how to go about dealing with that problem, it happens all too often and turns profitable days into losses.

Wow

I don't know whether today's markets just suited my style, but today's trading went so smoothly. I traded 14 markets, with only 2 small losses, one of them £0.01, and I made way over my daily target of £3. I felt in control, not emotionally involved in the markets, picked good entry points, was patient when there seemed to be no opportunities, my mind was alert and thinking well, and I was quick to analyse when I thought a position was going against me and got out straight away. The only slight downside was that I was caught In-Play twice when I was trading too close to the off, I got away with it both times, but I know that eventually I will get caught out, probably badly, and need to eradicate that flaw in my trading.

I feel that I have made a large leap to the next level over the last few days, having thought about where I am going wrong( not taking and dealing with losses), read "Trading in the Zone", watched videos of other people trading - this video particularly made a big impression on me - I will see what happens in the next few days, many times I have thought this and been brought crashing back to earth.

5 winning days in a row!

After the disastrous day which caused me to start writing the blog, I have had 5 winning days in a row, I'm feeling fairly proud of myself. When I get a good run I starting calculating how much I could win if my stakes were £x and how much I would be happy with per month, which is fair enough but I need to be careful not to let it affect my trading. Focusing on how much you are making, or losing if you are having a bad day, seems to separate you from the market a bit, and cloud your judgement.

Anyway, my october results are

PnL = -£5.01
Strike rate(races) = 62.87%

I am going to stay with £10 stakes for the time being. I am aiming to make an average of £3 a day, am looking for a bit more consistency, and would like my strike rate to be a bit higher

lost my profits on one race, again

I made a real mess of the 14:20 at Haydock. It was a difficult race to trade, with 2 low priced horses that drifted and came in a lot. So by the time I got near the off, I was down £1.30, did I just take that loss? No, I attempted to trade out, scalp no less, in a very volatile market, made more volatile by the fact that it was near the off, and it was very difficult to predict. So of course I got caught out by a big move right before the off, and had to red out, more than doubling my loss to £3.09. After a bit of shouting at the screen, I got a grip, took some deep breaths, and carried on trading, managing to get back to a profit for the day of £0.80. If I had just taken the £1.30 loss then I would have been on for a decent total for the day. Another hard lesson in when to take a loss, which I will learn from, or die in the attempt!

A Better Day

Today actually went ok, after the disaster of yesterday which prompted me to start the blog. I am only using small stakes, and have just about got used to taking losses on the chin when using £2 stakes. When I move up to £10 stakes , everything I have learned seems to go out the window. I am much more panicy, fearful and undisciplined. Today after having written my first blog post and hopefully realised what I have to work on, I found it easier to take the bigger losses that happen when using £10 stakes. It helped that I had a nice 82% strike rate ( races not trades) . I took a £1.80 loss in 1 race and at the time I got a bit angry and started to think "Oh here we go again". I took a deep breath, closed my eyes and mentally pushed all the negative thoughts away from me, and it seemed to help calm me down. I ended up with a nice days profit after 17 races.

I think the big loss was in part caused by someone whacking a huge back bet on, in the last minute before the off. I have seen this happen a lot recently, sometimes a series of huge backs, and am wondering what they are doing. it happened in a few races today, sometimes on the favorite, sometimes on the 2nd or 3rd with about 30 seconds to go. I dont think its bookies, as it doesnt happen every race. I am very wary about putting any trades in with less than a minute to go, as you cant predict where hes going to strike.

first post

Ok, I have finally decided to create a blog to record my progress in the world of betfair trading.
I know there are already millions of similar, established blogs out there that will be more interesting and have more to say, but even if no-one reads this I hope it will help me become more disciplined, which seems to be the main problem that is holding me back from becoming more successful.

I realise that I have a terrible mental attitude. I am very negative, take losses badly, give myself a hard time when things go wrong, and have a lot of emotional involvement in how i perceive the progress of my trading. By that I mean all the hopes and dreams that may be fulfilled by being a successful trader, and every little setback is a blow to these hopes.

But I dont give up easily - I think a lot of people after trying for 2 years and failing a lot of the time would have just jacked it all in. So I am going to fight the inner demons of fear, greed, hope, wishful thinking and pride, and hopefully train my mind to see things differently