Saturday, 24 July 2010

The End?

After 5 losing days in a row, all my confidence is gone, all my discipline is gone, i have no clue whats going on in the markets or in my head, and am just spewing money away. I dont know what happened as the first half of the month was decent, I was on for my best month ever. I did have a deal with someone that if I got over a certain amount, I would raise my stakes. Guess what was the highest I reached, before this 5 day losing streak? yup, the exact amount I needed to make before raising stakes. It could just be coincidence, or it could be evidence of self destructive behaviour. Whatever, my confidence is all shot to pieces, and theres no way I can trade properly like this.
I may drop back to min stakes for a while, but I dont know if I have the determination in me for more months of hard slog. Comments on this blog have advised me to give up, and it is something I am seriously considering. I will update the blog on the outcome


  1. A problem shared is a problem halved. If you follow my blog you will see that my journey seems to be entirely via a rollercoaster. I can have days where everything goes right quickly followed by days of mistake after mistake and chase after chase.

    First advice is to take a couple of days off. Don't get involved in any markets so that you can rid yourself of the negativity and start fresh. If you are very worried about the continued losses it will affect your performance and you will end up in a vicious circle.

    You say that you had a decent start to the month. So after taking a short break focus on the positives and assess what you were doing right and why it was working.

    You can do it. Don't give up just yet.

  2. Stop trading, close the blog and get a clean break from it all. You can always come back to this at some other time, but you should stop now before it does you any more damage. You have tried really hard but its not for you by the look of it.

  3. Take a long break Neil, you've spent years and got nowhere, it's pretty obvious you haven't an edge to make regular money from the racing markets.

    Not all doom and gloom though as I do believe you've learnt some good trading skills like taking the reds, not going inplay/chasing etc along the way. Trouble is without an edge those skills will only ever keep you even and you'll still lose long term thru commission albeit alot slower than other inexperienced traders.

    To be honest I'm surprised it's taken you so long to get to this point of considering giving up. Take a break for a few weeks or so and think if you really want to do this won't cost you any money and a couple of days won't be enough to think it thru properly after all the effort you've already put in.

    If you do decide to continue at least start taking it seriously and only play when you've some 'edge' not the half arsed approach you seem to have of just sticking money in the market based on your current ideas which just don't work. Don't restart and think the same ideas with lower stakes with suddenly start making money cos it won't. I can't stress how much that edge is important ask any winning trader and they won't tell you what their edge is but will admit to having one.

    Your hardest part is going to be clearing your head of most of the flawed ideas you already have about how the markets work, you really need to start from scratch with an empty mind and start looking at why markets move without putting in any money to start with. If you start trading again with money you'll end up repeating those old mistakes don't let money get in the way of finding that edge. Without any money at risk it should become a lot clearer to you why markets move the way they do and any conclusions you come to won't be hindered by worrying about closing/entering trades.

    As long as you're prepared to put in some effort, focus it in the right places and most importantly be prepared to accept alot of your current ideas are flawed there's no reason why you shouldn't be able to make a go of it. Just start taking it seriously don't come back trading tomorrow using small stakes with the same trading plan it isn't going to work no matter how much you think you deserve it

  4. Take a break and then try online poker, where everyone can beat microstakes.

  5. Im already beating microstakes poker :D

    Thanks for the comments everyone. I am taking at least 2 weeks off to clear my head, have even uninstalled The Toy!

  6. Good move Neil, say your goodbyes on the forums so you're not tempted to go back til those two weeks are up and take a well earned rest. Resist the urge to see how well or bad others are doing as at the end of the day it really won't make any difference to how your perform now or in the future.

    I've no doubts you'll be back for yet another final fling just make sure the next attempt is alot better prepared.

  7. I think these Anons are getting a bit heavy on you! It's a shame they don't put their necks on the line sometimes and reveal a bit more about their journey to greatness!

    What's an "edge" anyway? When you win slightly more than you lose? Then count me in! :)

    If you are just eating away at the "house's money" then where's the harm in carrying on? However, if you are throwing your own dosh away in lumps then yes, maybe it's time to quit but I wouldn't get too down on five losing days in a row; I had a sucky week last week and, even 8 months in, still figure it's all part of the learning process.

    Even the Heathcotes of this world must have been through hard times to reach greatness, they probably just forgot how hard it was to get there!


  8. Ah the joys of being an anonymous poster Mets, being able to mix and match the helpful posts and slagging off posts, sometimes even both in the same post, all without feeling the need to maintain some sort of consistency .

    You won't find any bloggers, even the anon ones, giving away too much of their journey to greatness, that's unless you consider things like staying hydrated helpful :) Very much a dog eat dog world out there for trading even though some bloggers and forum posters might like to appear helpful their advice won't amount to much more than commonsense which you should be able to figure out yourself.

    As for slowly eating away house money I'd imagine it gets pretty disheartening after a while and certainly not a good way to spend your free time for an hourly pittance. Much better to spend that time wisely searching out that 'edge' rather than plodding on with something you'll already found doesn't work well enough.

  9. Staying hydrated is very helpful, but I guess u wouldnt really class that as trading advice.

    I think I know who 1 of the anons is, and he has helped me a lot, so his advice is always welcome.

    As the name of my blog implies, most if not all of my problems are mental. I do seem to have an edge, since I am generally in profit, but it seems like its a very small edge, and finding something that is more reliable and makes a bit more is something I should be aiming at.
    Even if i do find this edge though, I need to be taking the trades each time they come up, rather than losing faith after a few losing trades, and throwing in other trades that maybe dont have much of an edge, or are just plain chasing.

    Anyway, Im going to enjoy my 2 weeks off.

  10. I agree with many of the points here, 5 losing days in a row is not the end of the world but also defining your edge needs to be clearer otherwise you are essentially gambling and profiting randomly if at all. Enjoy your break mate I'm sure you will figure out the right thing to do when you're ready :)

  11. Take no notice of the fucking halfwits on here saying give up.i bet they have given up on everything they have ever done.Have a break,come back build confidence,small stakes.Ignore the idiots.Keep trading and keep blogging.

  12. stop bloggging, give trading a break, when you come back just study the markets don't use any money, once you feel you git it try again.

    blogging and trading is a recipe for disaster you don't need the pressure

  13. @ the last anon...

    did you actually consider the comments and advice you were giving or were they just throw away mumblings out of your backside?

    Take your final remark for instance. What is your sample size to determine that blogging and trading is a recipe for disaster? And how well do you understand the pressures involved, particularly with this blogger?

  14. There is some good advice on this thread, mainly from the anonymous posters. If your on a losing streak then my advice is to lay-off and have a break. Otherwise, before you know it you've lost 80% of your "bank" and your confidence is shot to ribbons. This is all about confidence and belief, and if you don't have the confidence to believe in what your doing (ie. Increasing your stake five-fold if you believe you have spotted a "rick" in the markets) then take a rest. I have good times and bad times, but the bad times are when luck goes against me as my edge works and it has done for the past 8 years. I know in the long-run I make money. As someone else said, if you don't have an edge then you may as well go and play the FOBT's in your local bookie. Best of luck.

  15. I agree wayward lad, Im not going to ignore or throw away all the anons inputs just because they are anon, and there is some good advice in there.