November summary

Overall, November has been my best ever month:-

PnL : £28.28
Strike Rate : 62.33% ( races not trades)

Even though its been my best month, both values are quite low. Using £10 stakes I would be looking for £60-£90 a month, and my strike rate seems quite low. I have also traded a low number of races, only 377 out of the 600 or more races. I know that I am avoiding a lot of races with odds on favorites or very volatile markets with odds in the 2.00 to 3.00 range, I will need to work on making these markets profitable if I want my PnL to grow.

In general though, I have a lot to be pleased about. I found a good spreadsheet on this site , made by MG from the Trading Mind Games blog, it gives a lot of good information on how your trading is progressing. Firstly, my PnL for the month.


After the disasters around the 7th-8th Nov, my PnL has been rising pretty steadily, and I have been fairly consistent. Even when I have had a horrible strike rate, I have still managed to keep it together pretty well.

Some graphs :-


My average loss has been steadily dropping throughout the month, and this is a very good sign. My average win has gone up very slightly. I am worried about my strike rate, which has gone down through the month( although it is still round about the value for other months). I don't want to become ever more cautious and fearful in an attempt to increase my strike rate, so I need to strike a balance between going in to the market when I perceive an opportunity, and making sure that the opportunity is a good one. I am making a profit, and this is something to be proud of at this stage.

schwing!

The last 2 days I have been consciously looking for only swing trades, and it has been going a lot better. It means putting a lot less trades in, and being a bit more patient, which has been difficult, as I feel I should be hitting the markets hard. Also I am worried that I am changing my trading style in reaction to past days trading, becoming a bit more tentative and conservative than I should be. I guess I should be adjusting my trading style to each market, treating each one as unique, but it's hard to work out what a market is doing until you have watched it for a while, and by then its too late, its in-play!
Today I had a 100% strike rate in races, so am really pleased with that. I think have been overly critical and pessimistic of my trading in the last week, as, looking at my records, it looks like I'm doing fine for the stage I am at. I will probably take a day off tomorrow, maybe 2, and post a monthly results post.

tough day again

Another difficult day, this time I didn't get away so easily, ending up with a £2.48 loss for the day. I think part of my problem was trying to scalp in markets that just didn't suit it. Once I had adjusted and was looking for swings, things seemed to go a bit better( although without being great).With my strike rate being so low, I also lost a bit of self-discipline, and deliberately let a couple of races go in-play, which is not a good sign. I am still obviously not able to take a sustained run of losses and accept them.
Betfair going down for a few races didn't help either, meaning less races where I had a chance to pull it back, luckily I was out before the start of the race which seemed to cause all the problems.

tough

Found it hard going today, nothing I did seemed to come off.
Feeling a bit discouraged but still ended day with small green.

Frustration

Today I started off really well, first race made £1.55, another race made £1.67. I was keeping my losses low and trading calmly, trying not to focus on how much I was making. Then came the 14:50 and 15:00 races. I'm really not sure what happened, but I managed to lose a total of £4.20 on these races, blowing my profits for the day so far. There was an unexpected swing in both races, I seem to remember, but there has been in other races too and I usually manage to lose less than £1 on these most times.

The worrying thing is, this is now 3 days in a row that this has happened, where I have been on for a good total for the day and then 1 or 2 races just kill my profits. I can put some of it down to the fact that sunday, monday and tuesday are fairly difficult to trade, but I don't think this is the whole story. It seems to be the later races, getting to the end of the card, that get me. Am I getting tired, losing concentration and focus? Am I letting my PnL affect my trading by become more reckless and (over)confident when I have a good total for the day? Do I think I know what the market is doing and not need to pay attention to the information that is being given me?
I am certainly getting angry when these losses happen, and that can be a sign that I am emotionally involved in the market, and have expectations of what is going to happen.
As I have mentioned before, I think a certain amount of self-sabotage is involved too. That is something that by its very nature is going to be hidden deep in the subconscious and not something I can get rid of easily. I dont fancy looking in the mirror every morning and chanting
"I welcome wealth and success as my right" or whatever crap the self-help books teach you to say.
I think a combination of all these factors is the cause, and is an indication that I am not as far along the path to success as I think. I was going to raise my stakes, but may wait a bit now.

I am happy that over the 3 days, I have still made £4.62 , and a few months ago I would have been deep in the red in the same situation.I know I am making progress and need to stay calm and work on these mental aspects.

Feeling good

It's funny how when things are going badly, I can have a lot to say, lots to think about, and lots to beat myself over the head with, but when things are going well I don't know what to say. I am really pleased with how the last 2 weeks have gone, and I think the blog has a lot to do with it. It helps to think about what is going wrong, what you have learned about trading, and to put down your thoughts, it kind of brings them forward in your head, makes them concrete, and gives you focus on things to work on.
Another good today, making £3.52 from £10 stakes. This is without trading all the races. I find it quite difficult to have a strategy for races with favorites with odds less than 3, and also races where 2 horses are under 3, or around the same mark. If I can make more progress in these races then my PnL can only improve. I have almost eradicated going in-running, as I am now out when Bart says "I'm outta here", or else closing my trade soon after.

Smooth running

Today saw much more stable markets than the last 2 days for me. Everything seemed to go really smoothly, there were no panic moments, and I was on for a 100% strike rate in races until the last race, where I messed up a bit.
After the last 10 days where I have had 8 winning days, and the 2 losing days lost me a total of £0.29, I am seriously considering raising my stakes a bit. At the moment I use £10 stakes across all price ranges, and although I don't set a daily target I consider anything over £3 a good day. I want this month to end with a green PnL, and raising the stakes may put unnecessary pressure on me, so I may wait till the end of the month and then raise my stakes to £20.